The sports betting industry has exploded in recent years as more states legalize and regulate sports gambling. With huge amounts of money now flowing through legal markets, sportsbooks and bettors alike are looking for any edge to increase their profits.
Advanced analytics and tracking of betting trends have become crucial tools for finding value and predicting results more accurately. As one of the leading providers of data-driven insights in the sports betting space, BetPro has a unique vantage point to spot shifts and changes happening under the surface.
Key Stats Showing the Growth of Legal Betting
The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that over $57 billion has been wagered legally on sports since the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in May 2018. Over 30 states now offer legal sports betting in some format, with several more working quickly to pass legislation.
This rapid expansion shows no signs of slowing down. Research company Eilers & Krejcik Gaming predicts the legal US sports betting market could reach as much as $8 billion in total handle for 2021. And Goldman Sachs recently released a report estimating the market could hit $39 billion by 2033.
The bottom line: Sports betting is seeing astounding growth and shows all signs of becoming a staple for states looking to increase tax revenues.
Factors Driving the Acceleration of Sports Betting
Several key factors are responsible for propelling sports betting into the mainstream consciousness and legal markets nationwide:
Supreme Court Ruling Lifts Federal Restrictions
In May 2018, the Supreme Court ruled the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) unconstitutional, overturning the federal ban on sports gambling outside of Nevada. This paved the way for all states to legalize and regulate sports betting as they see fit rather than defer to federal law.
Emergence of Mobile Betting
Advances in technology and the proliferation of smartphone use changed the mechanics of sports gambling. Mobile betting allows access to wager anytime, anywhere rather than relying solely on physical sportsbooks. Over 80% of total sports betting handle now comes from mobile wagers.
State Tax Revenues
Empty coffers due to COVID-19 accelerated many state legislatures’ push to pass sports betting bills. With so much money now flowing through regulated markets, sports betting provides states big opportunities to boost tax revenues.
Media/Advertising Blitz
Sports media companies like ESPN, Fox Sports, and Barstool Sports have major partnerships with sportsbooks. Their platforms normalize sports betting through constant ads and betting-centric programming that educates audiences.
Fan Engagement
Legal markets stimulate more mainstream interest in sports betting as a form of interactive fan engagement. Sportsbooks creatively promote free-to-play contests, odds boosts, risk-free bets, and other tools to attract first-time bettors.
The bottom line: A cultural shift is underway regarding sports betting laws and attitudes, driving unprecedented mainstream popularity.
Betting Market Analysis: Money Flows from Football to Basketball
Delving into market analysis, intriguing developments emerge beneath the surface-level growth in year-over-year handle.
Football remains king, accounting for ~40% of the total US handle on sports betting. However, its share of the pie is slightly decreasing. Basketball has seen a small uptick to now make up ~25% of the market. This is likely the effect of basketball having more games per season to bet on than football.
The proportion of money going towards football wagers vs. basketball wagers illustrates the subtle shifts in market preferences emerging. Sports bettors appear to be diversifying their interests across the full sports calendar rather than rigidly sticking to football betting.
Tracking Where the Smart Money Flows
Now let’s examine where the lion’s share of profits in this booming market is originating from.
Around 95% of sports bettors are considered general population or “recreational” bettors. These people are not using advanced metrics to influence their wagering – they largely bet for fun as a hobby. On the other hand, professional bettors approach gambling from a business perspective, using data analysis to find mispriced odds on outcomes more likely to happen.
Here are critical betting market movements to track at large legal sportsbooks to determine where smart money flows:
Line Movements
When betting lines on game outcomes shift noticeably, it suggests respected money entered the market targeting specific wagers. Tracking the percentage of bets vs. percentage of money on each side provides extra clarity. When a team receives a lower share of total tickets but higher percentage of money, it signifies bets from sharp bettors who wager more than recreational ones.
Steam Moves
When the betting line for a team or game outcome changes rapidly over a short span due to an influx of lopsided wagering activity, this suggests sharp action. Steady steam moves are almost always traced back to professional bettors.
Reverse Line Movement
This fascinating scenario occurs when betting lines move counter to overall public betting percentages – the exact opposite of what conventional wisdom says should happen. When sportsbooks spot respected money targeting an unpopular side, they shade the line the other way to mitigate potential losses if that sharp opinion proves correct.
The bottom line: Keeping tabs on betting market movements reveals a lot about where smart money originates and what outcomes sharps expect compared to recreational bettors.
Factors That Influence Changes in Odds and Lines
Many variables account for sports betting lines and odds adjusting over time before games take place. By understanding why these changes occur, we can again detect which forces and stakeholders are moving the market.
Injuries
Impact player injuries often trigger significant line movements. The side dealing with injured stars and key role players will see the line shift against them while money pours in on their opponent.
Situational Spots
Certain scheduling spots favor one side facing circumstances the market deems advantageous – like one team coming off extra rest before facing a divisional rival that just played an overtime game. Oddsmakers install key numbers catering to their perception of situational edges.
Weather Forecasts
Anticipated weather events like heavy wind, snow, rain or extreme heat often prompt line moves. Inclement conditions usually favor defensive minded teams that focus on running the football. Clear weather and high-scoring affairs tend to benefit passing attacks instead.
Pros vs Joes Betting Splits
When betting percentages heavily favor one team but the line moves the other way, oddsmakers show no respect for the public perception. This signals wiseguys identified value betting against the masses on the unpopular side.
The bottom line: Changes in sports betting odds and market movements trace back to a variety of injury/personnel, situational and weather variables – plus the eternal tug-of-war between sharp and recreational money.
Betting Market Inefficiencies to Exploit
Sifting through all the data points available, advantages emerge by targeting aspects of sports betting markets where inefficiencies exist.
Unproductive tendencies of recreational bettors create frequent opportunities for seasoned sports bettors. Here are betting behaviors of the general public that produce market inefficiencies to capitalize on:
Overreacting to Recent Results
Casual fans bet impulsively based on the last game they watched rather than big-picture fundamentals. If a team covers a large spread unexpectedly, unwise bettors overvalue that performance expecting it to suddenly carry over.
Misreading Motivational Spots
General fans overestimate the impact of hollow angles about a team being “due” to perform well in a certain spot when the data doesn’t actually support it.
Underestimating Rest Disadvantages
The average fan does not pay close enough attention to upcoming scheduling spots that leave one team dealing with significant rest discrepancies against their opponent.
Ignoring Advanced Metrics
Casual bettors neglect predictive stats and data models that sharps use to make educated picks based on variables proven over time to have predictive outcomes.
The bottom line: Numerous edges emerge for sports bettors by fading public perception and targeting quantifiable factors the betting markets continually undervalue.
Tips for Bettors Looking to Beat the Sportsbooks
Now let’s transition from analyzing betting market inefficiencies to strategizing actionable steps bettors should implement in order to exploit sportsbooks consistently.
Here are 5 pieces of advice for aspiring sports gamblers looking to approach betting as a professional rather than a recreational pastime:
1. Specialize in a Sport or League
All successful pro sports bettors emphasize mastering one particular league above all others. By specializing, you stay on top of roster/depth chart changes, shooting slumps, defensive schemes and other granular factors that casual fans gloss over.
2. Consume Advanced Analytics
Reading, listening and learning anything you can from analytical models, databases and predictive metrics experts provides a leg up over recreational gamblers who just glance at schedules.
3. Focus on Long-Term Results
Avoid getting thrown off or discouraged by short-term noise and variance. The key is beating closing betting lines and oddsmakers over time rather than obsessing over the wins or losses of each day or week.
4. Employ Disciplined Bankroll Management
Utilize staking methods like fixed dollar or fixed percentage of bankrolls on wagers to account for inevitable swings. Define loss limits stopping you out to prevent ruined finances due to tilt bets.
5. Shop For Best Lines
Maximize potential payouts by always comparing the odds available to you across sportsbooks and placing wagers only when you get the number needed to provide value. Half a point here or there makes a monumental difference long-term.
The bottom line: Cultivate betting habits in line with proven professionals to give yourself financial viability and staying power.
Projecting the Future of Sports Betting
Glancing into the crystal ball after analyzing changes already happening under the surface of sports betting markets, we can predict several developments likely to emerge in the near future:
Continued Mobile Betting Domination
Convenience is king. Look for mobile betting platforms and fast user interfaces to further entrench themselves as the preferred method sports gamblers place their action. Getting in and out of wagers faster with seamless payment integration offers a superior experience bettors seek.
Targeted In-Game Betting
We anticipate mobile features allowing bettors to instantly wager on micro events as games play out (think next play outcomes or player prop derivative markets) becoming commonplace. This increases fan engagement during live action rather than just checking box scores or outcomes after the fact.
Emergence of Exchange Betting
The daily fantasy sports industry provides a blueprint for expanded peer to peer and exchange betting models to take hold. Cutting out the sportsbook middleman and allowing bettors to offer or take posted odds amongst themselves flips betting into more of a trading exchange ecosystem.
Mainstream NFT Tie-Ins
As sports organizations and individual athletes continue figuring out creative ways to monetize their brands, expect betting interests and digital assets/collectibles tied to sports gambling plays to emerge for rabid fans willing to pay a premium or speculate.
The bottom line: The cross section of sports betting and technology still has blue ocean room for innovation ahead to deepen mainstream adoption through interactive elements.
Key Takeaways and Conclusion
As this deep dive into betting analytics and market trends illustrates, the rapidly growing US sports gambling industry finds itself at an extremely intriguing inflection point heading into 2023 and beyond.
To quickly recap our central themes:
- Legal markets expanding across 50 states appear inevitable long-term as more legislative dominos fall due to increased tax revenues. Early movers are already reaping hundreds of millions in extra income.
- Subtle shifts showing more betting diversity across sports suggest football’s betting share decreasing slightly. Savvy bettors spread action across a year-long calendar rather than mainly wagering on Sundays during fall.
- Discrepancies between where the public and sharp money flows provides predictive signals on which sides to back. Tracking line movements and analyzing changes in odds offer a window into expected results.
- Inefficiencies exist in market moves and recreational tendencies for seasoned bettors to exploit. Specializing in mispriced advanced metrics levels the playing field against casual fans generally betting only small amounts for fun on outcomes they personally hope and expect to happen.
Rather than a fleeting boom/bust trend, expect regulated sports gambling markets to broaden and mature long into the future. Sustained double-digit growth annually shows no signs of stopping as bettors increasingly interact with sports in this popular form of fan engagement intertwined with addictive financial risk/reward elements.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of sports bettors are profitable long-term?
Estimates suggest around 95% of sports gamblers lose money over time compared to sportsbooks. Only the top professional bettors able to exploit inefficiencies and mathematical advantages manage to beat closing odds consistently.
How much of a future edge does mobile betting provide?
Mobile sports betting apps and platforms allow bettors to react in real-time analyzing dozens more data points. Expect mobile-exclusive enhancements around micro-betting and peer to peer exchange models to widen this existing edge over outdated land-based bet taking methods.
What sport is easiest to bet on and beat the books?
Each knowledgeable bettor may have different opinions, but major US team sports with tons of analytics/data available like basketball and football are easier attacking than low volume niche sports. The most beatable lines involve lopsided public betting percentages stacked against unpopular sides rather than fairly balanced action.
Can sports betting turn into consistent income like stocks?
For 99% of bettors, sports gambling remains a fun hobby and not a realistic full-time income source. But by developing expertise around bet sizing/bankroll management and achieving 55%+ win rates over thousands of wagers, elite professional sports bettors do manage to turn profits rivaling their other investments.
Can bettors consistently beat closing betting lines and oddsmakers?
It’s extremely difficult, but yes – members of the expert betting syndicates driving most of the sharp action have systematic models proving the ability to identify and exploit market inefficiencies others miss. Beating betting closing lines long-term involves huge volume with razor thin profit margin per wager though.
Let me know if you would like me to revise or expand on any part of this article draft. I aimed to provide a broad overview of the legal sports betting landscape with enough details to demonstrate growth patterns and explain predictive analytics/market edges while emphasizing actionable advice for aspiring bettors in a conversational tone. Please provide any feedback so I can improve.